 Outline of Analysis
| Ramsey County vs. Minnesota Comparative Trends Analysis: Gross Domestic Product Growth and Change, 2001-2022 Introduction  Ramsey County: 2022 GDP = $49,206,361K 2022 Percent of State = 10.98% Minnesota: 2022 GDP = $448,032,411K 2022 Percent of U.S. = 1.74% Nationally, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is widely regarded as the foremost blue-chip barometer for tracking and calibrating the economic performance of the economy nationwide. Like its closely followed national counterpart, the GDP of Ramsey County is the most comprehensive measure of output of all goods and services produced by labor and property located within Ramsey County. It is a market valuation of the goods and services-both private and public-produced within a regional economy. Unlike the widely and frequently reported employment and job numbers that measure labor as one of the units of input into production, GDP is a valuation of the output. Also, while County Personal Income is representative of the "purchasing power" of those that reside within a county, think of Gross Domestic Product as representative of the "producing power" of that county. For a more detailed and technical explanation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by County compiled by the Regional Product Branch of Bureau of Economic Analysis please refer to the A Primer on Local Area Gross Domestic Product Methodology article found on the BEA website. BEA: DefinitionGDP by county is the county counterpart of the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP), the Bureau's featured and most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP by county is derived as the sum of the GDP originating in all the industries in a county. The statistics of real GDP by county are prepared in chained (2017) dollars. Real GDP by county is an inflation-adjusted measure of each county's gross product that is based on national prices for the goods and services produced within that county. The statistics of real GDP by county and of quantity indexes with a base year of 2017 were derived by applying national chain-type price indexes to the current-dollar GDP-by-county values for the 64 detailed NAICS-based industries for 1997 forward. The chain-type index formula that is used in the national accounts is then used to calculate the values of total real GDP by county and of real GDP by county at more aggregated industry levels. Real GDP by county may reflect a substantial volume of output that is sold to other counties and regions. To the extent that a county's output is produced and sold in national markets at relatively uniform prices (or sold locally at national prices), real GDP by state captures the differences across states that reflect the relative differences in the mix of goods and services that the counties produce. However, real GDP by county does not capture geographic differences in the prices of goods and services that are produced and sold locally. United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Product Division. BEA: Relation of GDP by county to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)An industry's GDP by county, or its value added, in practice, is calculated as the sum of incomes earned by labor and capital and the costs incurred in the production of goods and services. That is, it includes the wages and salaries that workers earn, the income earned by individual or joint entrepreneurs as well as by corporations, and business taxes such as sales, property, and Federal excise taxes that count as a business expense. GDP is calculated as the sum of what consumers, businesses, and government spend on final goods and services, plus investment and net foreign trade. In theory, incomes earned should equal what is spent, but due to different data sources, income earned, usually referred to as gross domestic income (GDI), does not always equal what is spent (GDP). The difference is referred to as the "statistical discrepancy." Starting with the 2004 comprehensive revision, BEA's annual industry accounts and its GDP-by-county accounts allocate the statistical discrepancy across all private-sector industries. Therefore, the GDP-by-county statistics are now conceptually more similar to the GDP statistics in the national accounts than they had been in the past. U.S. real GDP by county for the advance year, 2012, may differ from the Annual Industry Accounts' GDP by industry and, hence NIPA (National Income and Product Account) GDP, because of different sources and vintages of data used to estimate GDP by state and NIPA GDP. For the revised years of 2009-2011, U.S. GDP by county is nearly identical to GDP by industry except for small differences resulting from the GDP-by-county accounts' exclusion of overseas Federal military and civilian activity (because it cannot be attributed to a particular state). The GDP-by-industry statistics are identical to those from the 2012 annual revision of the NIPAs, released in July 2012. However, because of revisions since July 2012, GDP in the NIPAs may differ from U.S. GDP by county. United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Product Division. Ramsey County Gross Domestic Product, 2002-2022 Current vs. Chained 2017 Dollars (Millions)  Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts Ramsey County's annual gross domestic product over 2002-2022 in current and constant (chained 2017) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real total good and services output of Ramsey County over time. When measured in current dollars, Ramsey County's GDP increased 86.94%, from $26,322M in 2002 to $49,206M in 2022. When measured in constant 2017 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 26.43%, from $34,152M in 2002 to $43,179M in 2022. Real Gross Domestic Product, 2001-2022 (Millions)  Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Ramsey County's and Minnesota's annual real gross domestic product for the period 2001-2022 to illustrate real gross domestic product patterns over time. During this 22-year period, Ramsey County's real gross domestic product rose from $33,450M in 2001 to $43,179M in 2022, for a net gain of $9,729M, or 29.08%. In comparison, Minnesota's real GDP increased from $263,519M in 2001 to $379,112M in 2022, for a net advance of $115,593M, or 43.87%. Real Gross Domestic Product Indices (2001=100): 2001-2022  Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Ramsey County's real gross domestic product growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Minnesota, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real gross domestic product in 2001 as a base figure of 100, and the real gross domestic products in later years as a percentage of the 2001 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real gross domestic product growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Ramsey County's overall real GDP growth was 29.08% over 2001-2022 trailed Minnesota's increase of 43.87%, and fell below the United States' increase of 53.34%. Gross Domestic Product as a Percent of the Minnesota Total: 2001-2022  Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the gross domestic product growth of Ramsey County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Minnesota's statewide gross domestic product over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's gross domestic product grew faster, or declined less, than Minnesota's gross domestic product, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 2001, Ramsey County's GDP comprised 12.88% of Minnesota's GDP, while in 2022 it equated to 10.98% thereby yielding a -1.89% share-shift.
Ramsey County Real Gross Domestic Product: Annual Percent Change, 2002-2022  Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Ramsey County's real gross domestic product growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 2002-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 21-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Ramsey County's real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.25% over 2002-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 2003 (4.77%) and posted its lowest growth in 2009 (-3.89%). In 2022, Ramsey County's real GDP grew by 1.71% Ramsey County Real Gross Domestic Product: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 2002-2022  Figure 6. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in Ramsey County's real gross domestic product since 2002, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During 2002-2009, Ramsey County's annual real GDP growth rate averaged 0.85%. It averaged 1.95% in the 2010s, -0.04% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Real Gross Domestic Product Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade  Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Ramsey County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Minnesota and the nation. As the chart reveals, Ramsey County's average annual real gross domestic product growth fell below Minnesota's average in the 2000s (0.85% vs. 1.53%), trailed Minnesota's average during the 2010s (1.95% vs. 2.19%), and trailed Minnesota's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.04% vs. 0.98%). Finally, relative to nationwide real gross domestic product growth trends, Ramsey County recorded underneath the nation during the 2000s (0.85% vs. 1.77%), fell below the nation throughout the 2010s (1.95% vs. 2.38%), and posted below the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.04% vs. 1.84%).
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