Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Farm Earnings Growth
Across Minnesota Counties
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 22.58%
2022 = 27.48%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real farm earnings growth across all of Minnesota's 87 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Minnesota Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real farm earnings growth of Minnesota's 87 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 22.58%
2022 = 27.48%
This figure displays the 87 counties of Minnesota as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real farm earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real farm earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real farm earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 22.58%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 22.58% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (22.58%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 46 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 41 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 35 counties whose most recent (2022) real farm earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (27.48%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 52 counties whose real farm earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 87 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 22.58% over 2010-2022 and 27.48% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real farm earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (22.58%) and near-term (27.48%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (22.58%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Minnesota average (27.48%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (22.58%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (27.48%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real farm earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (22.58%) and near-term (27.48%).
   
 
Summary of Minnesota's 87 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(27.48%)
Above
(27.48%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(22.58%)
28
18
46
Below
(22.58%)
24
17
41
 
52
35
87
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 22.58%
2022 = 27.48%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Minnesota counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Minnesota's average annual real farm earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 22.58%) as well as near-term (2022 = 27.48%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Minnesota's 87 counties, 18 (21%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 22.58%
2022 = 27.48%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 28 Minnesota counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 22.58%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 27.48%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 28 (32%) of Minnesota's 87 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 22.58%
2022 = 27.48%
This figure shows the distribution of the 17 Minnesota counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 22.58%), while they outpaced Minnesota's average near-term (2022 = 27.48%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Minnesota's 87 counties, 20% (17) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 22.58%
2022 = 27.48%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 24 Minnesota counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real farm earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 22.58%) as well as near-term (2022 = 27.48%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
28% of Minnesota's counties, 24 of 87, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Minnesota
Real* Farm Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
26
44.18
 
2
91.43
-58
 
7
169.67
 
17
43.26
54,496
 
23
47.33
 
4
88.92
9,019
 
12
85.97
 
35
27.97
47,044
 
8
117.16
 
13
45.75
77,429
 
43
23.91
 
30
32.59
114,593
 
18
63.14
 
8
67.19
66,295
 
32
36.43
 
10
60.28
107,345
 
38
25.44
 
31
31.76
64,340
 
6
199.00
 
9
64.40
68,982
 
13
79.48
 
26
35.00
121,773
 
19
62.57
 
3
89.54
3,315
 
22
48.32
 
22
39.20
29,728
 
15
68.91
 
33
29.98
86,176
 
46
22.74
 
7
74.73
99,974
 
24
46.67
 
15
44.47
96,946
 
33
33.91
 
14
45.28
86,356
 
27
42.40
 
19
41.40
80,854
Slipping Counties
 
37
25.87
 
61
14.78
11,590
 
30
38.58
 
60
15.15
32,940
 
39
25.41
 
72
10.08
17,635
 
1
4,066.25
 
66
12.96
96,958
 
17
67.96
 
67
12.62
13,133
 
36
26.05
 
75
6.61
4,887
 
29
39.37
 
41
25.08
101,001
 
11
87.74
 
36
27.03
95,537
 
35
29.21
 
52
21.66
2,769
 
3
374.85
 
70
10.73
58,325
 
16
68.60
 
86
-99.44
1
 
2
669.70
 
73
8.89
6,712
 
25
44.30
 
40
25.50
60,700
 
40
25.25
 
68
11.31
36,850
 
10
88.86
 
50
22.15
28,260
 
14
71.03
 
54
20.49
114,431
 
41
24.87
 
38
26.14
76,157
 
31
37.68
 
39
25.57
69,684
 
44
23.79
 
57
17.65
151,496
 
5
212.05
 
65
13.52
48,448
 
9
101.04
 
81
-9.73
148,392
 
21
49.18
 
48
22.82
63,382
 
34
32.32
 
49
22.69
54,782
 
4
374.84
 
62
14.51
71,221
 
42
24.37
 
82
-12.58
18,222
 
28
39.54
 
53
20.57
80,916
 
45
23.14
 
51
21.80
69,312
 
20
58.74
 
69
11.10
44,165
Gaining Counties
 
58
17.81
 
23
38.03
58,062
 
85
-101.20
 
12
48.55
-1,600
 
62
16.54
 
24
37.15
66,660
 
60
17.26
 
28
34.19
36,796
 
84
-43.38
 
1
92.32
8,716
 
56
18.38
 
18
42.58
91,267
 
68
14.96
 
27
34.51
135,452
 
77
9.07
 
6
76.07
5,828
 
54
19.06
 
5
82.13
147,053
 
70
14.10
 
25
36.49
102,342
 
65
15.41
 
34
28.85
127,043
 
71
13.21
 
20
39.48
143,669
 
69
14.39
 
29
33.44
115,379
 
59
17.47
 
16
44.41
227,681
 
52
19.75
 
11
50.87
114,709
 
49
21.27
 
21
39.28
60,241
 
50
20.63
 
32
30.66
67,806
Lagging Counties
 
78
5.80
 
84
-21.21
20,694
 
53
19.21
 
37
26.47
77,268
 
57
17.88
 
45
23.93
129,632
 
76
10.97
 
58
17.19
112,940
 
82
0.00
 
78
0.00
0
 
48
21.40
 
43
24.18
117,578
 
75
11.58
 
74
6.85
64,108
 
86
-122.65
 
46
23.47
51,725
 
81
0.03
 
79
-8.56
14,512
 
61
17.00
 
71
10.41
12,648
 
83
-2.12
 
87
-154.41
-265
 
73
11.79
 
47
23.29
101,397
 
63
16.36
 
83
-13.91
1,559
 
66
15.13
 
64
13.82
145,165
 
87
-398.50
 
76
2.16
74,480
 
74
11.71
 
77
1.63
9,532
 
72
12.47
 
44
24.01
101,415
 
80
0.07
 
85
-39.13
1,036
 
55
18.60
 
55
19.79
167,904
 
51
19.79
 
42
24.60
59,432
 
47
21.43
 
56
18.44
64,446
 
67
15.01
 
63
14.32
20,013
 
79
1.35
 
80
-9.26
28,259
 
64
15.89
 
59
15.15
70,599
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
22.58
 
27.48
5,745,694
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7.08
 
5.51
114,272,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_500000_LSGL
 
   
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