Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing State Government Earnings Growth
Across Minnesota Counties
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.81%
2022 = 2.84%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real state government earnings growth across all of Minnesota's 87 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Minnesota Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real state government earnings growth of Minnesota's 87 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.81%
2022 = 2.84%
This figure displays the 87 counties of Minnesota as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real state government earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real state government earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real state government earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.81%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.81% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.81%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 24 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 49 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 25 counties whose most recent (2022) real state government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.84%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 48 counties whose real state government earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 87 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.81% over 2010-2022 and 2.84% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real state government earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.81%) and near-term (2.84%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.81%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Minnesota average (2.84%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.81%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.84%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real state government earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.81%) and near-term (2.84%).
   
 
Summary of Minnesota's 87 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.84%)
Above
(2.84%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.81%)
14
10
24
Below
(2.81%)
34
15
49
 
48
25
73
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.81%
2022 = 2.84%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Minnesota counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Minnesota's average annual real state government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.81%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.84%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Minnesota's 87 counties, just 10 (11%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.81%
2022 = 2.84%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 14 Minnesota counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.81%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 2.84%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 14 (16%) of Minnesota's 87 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.81%
2022 = 2.84%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 34 Minnesota counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real state government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.81%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.84%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
39% of Minnesota's counties, 34 of 87, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Minnesota
Real* State Government Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
21
3.04
 
20
3.63
43,034
 
15
3.93
 
16
4.40
2,660,281
 
16
3.45
 
7
7.11
2,394
 
24
2.83
 
6
8.45
1,823
 
7
5.05
 
1
15.91
5,807
 
8
5.00
 
22
3.26
31,711
 
13
4.09
 
14
4.56
45,729
 
14
3.99
 
4
9.68
169,704
 
22
2.96
 
18
3.77
2,713,552
 
6
5.57
 
3
9.83
13,339
Slipping Counties
 
20
3.09
 
39
-0.40
119,852
 
10
4.57
 
44
-1.43
13,045
 
12
4.10
 
40
-0.78
7,007
 
3
7.81
 
51
-3.28
3,121
 
1
12.18
 
63
-5.31
2,175
 
5
7.38
 
32
1.57
4,660
 
9
4.80
 
31
1.61
3,219
 
18
3.40
 
70
-10.46
1,395
 
2
8.09
 
78
-23.30
655
 
4
7.49
 
62
-5.27
4,657
 
23
2.85
 
28
2.40
1,196
 
17
3.43
 
29
2.06
89,835
 
11
4.17
 
30
1.81
4,449
 
19
3.32
 
74
-17.78
12,272
Gaining Counties
 
32
2.44
 
10
6.00
96,913
 
40
2.15
 
23
3.24
7,991
 
25
2.75
 
21
3.34
93,459
 
41
1.97
 
11
5.61
137,417
 
33
2.39
 
9
6.20
5,914
 
57
0.77
 
25
2.88
57,325
 
46
1.41
 
13
4.66
1,033
 
27
2.72
 
24
3.13
4,026
 
37
2.28
 
2
10.54
1,573
 
28
2.71
 
17
4.03
22,765
 
30
2.47
 
15
4.44
31,304
 
34
2.38
 
12
4.69
41,810
 
58
0.66
 
19
3.74
1,083
 
72
-2.00
 
8
6.24
732
 
36
2.31
 
5
8.79
1,151
Lagging Counties
 
60
0.45
 
64
-5.37
3,751
 
35
2.36
 
36
0.01
185,853
 
51
1.26
 
58
-4.59
32,573
 
45
1.68
 
35
0.18
192,398
 
31
2.44
 
26
2.53
36,821
 
56
0.82
 
41
-1.12
95,572
 
54
1.12
 
46
-1.89
1,714
 
71
-1.29
 
38
-0.20
6,537
 
53
1.19
 
61
-5.18
24,562
 
64
-0.68
 
37
-0.09
11,939
 
70
-1.25
 
69
-9.09
17,543
 
44
1.75
 
56
-4.02
42,211
 
69
-1.21
 
73
-15.94
3,524
 
67
-1.05
 
71
-13.00
5,174
 
39
2.24
 
59
-4.74
15,893
 
62
-0.16
 
57
-4.21
2,071
 
52
1.23
 
47
-1.98
54,087
 
47
1.38
 
72
-14.86
13,575
 
63
-0.61
 
68
-8.70
2,687
 
66
-0.98
 
76
-21.90
8,047
 
42
1.85
 
34
0.66
101,613
 
43
1.83
 
60
-4.85
43,505
 
68
-1.07
 
54
-3.46
17,772
 
50
1.32
 
77
-21.99
3,363
 
48
1.36
 
33
1.33
43,117
 
29
2.47
 
50
-3.00
2,619
 
26
2.75
 
67
-8.28
4,640
 
55
1.09
 
42
-1.22
309,136
 
61
0.23
 
45
-1.69
209,210
 
65
-0.72
 
66
-7.07
12,098
 
38
2.24
 
27
2.48
124,011
 
59
0.52
 
52
-3.35
2,219
 
49
1.36
 
48
-2.63
112,894
 
73
-2.26
 
79
-23.31
5,297
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
55
-3.56
4,545
 
U
U
 
49
-2.72
1,109
 
U
U
 
S
S
15,807
 
U
U
 
75
-21.54
2,083
 
U
U
 
65
-6.75
815
 
U
U
 
S
S
273
 
U
U
 
S
S
631
 
U
U
 
S
S
8,401
 
U
U
 
S
S
347
 
U
U
 
S
S
11,440
 
U
U
 
43
-1.31
38,047
 
U
U
 
S
S
599
 
U
U
 
53
-3.43
5,017
 
U
U
 
S
S
604
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.81
 
2.84
8,297,152
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.81
 
2.68
477,522,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_620310_LSGL
 
   
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