Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Local Government Earnings Growth
Across Minnesota Counties
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.50%
2022 = 2.24%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real local government earnings growth across all of Minnesota's 87 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Minnesota Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real local government earnings growth of Minnesota's 87 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.50%
2022 = 2.24%
This figure displays the 87 counties of Minnesota as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real local government earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real local government earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real local government earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.50%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.50% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.50%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 39 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 34 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 30 counties whose most recent (2022) real local government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.24%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 43 counties whose real local government earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 87 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.50% over 2010-2022 and 2.24% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real local government earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.50%) and near-term (2.24%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.50%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Minnesota average (2.24%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.50%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.24%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real local government earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.50%) and near-term (2.24%).
   
 
Summary of Minnesota's 87 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.24%)
Above
(2.24%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.50%)
23
16
39
Below
(2.50%)
20
14
34
 
43
30
73
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.50%
2022 = 2.24%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Minnesota counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Minnesota's average annual real local government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.50%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.24%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Minnesota's 87 counties, 16 (18%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.50%
2022 = 2.24%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 23 Minnesota counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.50%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 2.24%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 23 (26%) of Minnesota's 87 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.50%
2022 = 2.24%
This figure shows the distribution of the 14 Minnesota counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.50%), while they outpaced Minnesota's average near-term (2022 = 2.24%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Minnesota's 87 counties, 16% (14) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = 2.50%
2022 = 2.24%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 20 Minnesota counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real local government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.50%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.24%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
23% of Minnesota's counties, 20 of 87, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Minnesota
Real* Local Government Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
2
4.97
 
11
4.69
177,860
 
10
3.72
 
5
5.86
257,477
 
12
3.30
 
19
3.67
1,448,880
 
19
3.01
 
22
3.10
92,636
 
38
2.54
 
16
4.03
239,872
 
39
2.53
 
24
2.96
4,859,127
 
13
3.19
 
26
2.79
37,110
 
24
2.79
 
18
3.90
42,925
 
17
3.10
 
15
4.03
74,279
 
21
2.90
 
12
4.45
77,541
 
9
3.76
 
29
2.57
538,030
 
25
2.76
 
32
2.37
52,148
 
1
5.30
 
3
7.81
64,720
 
16
3.15
 
4
5.89
285,200
 
23
2.81
 
23
3.03
139,425
 
11
3.62
 
2
8.64
89,475
Slipping Counties
 
15
3.16
 
49
0.77
201,256
 
34
2.63
 
75
-4.95
95,592
 
22
2.87
 
37
1.90
206,508
 
7
3.79
 
43
1.62
79,670
 
3
4.27
 
45
1.40
230,882
 
32
2.66
 
39
1.89
44,391
 
28
2.73
 
51
0.17
71,484
 
6
3.84
 
44
1.41
206,529
 
18
3.05
 
73
-3.61
53,819
 
30
2.71
 
64
-1.32
105,505
 
37
2.55
 
46
1.02
101,356
 
29
2.71
 
60
-0.82
37,895
 
26
2.76
 
65
-1.37
94,668
 
33
2.64
 
66
-1.48
127,547
 
8
3.76
 
47
0.97
93,209
 
14
3.17
 
69
-2.28
79,142
 
5
3.89
 
34
2.20
206,846
 
35
2.58
 
74
-4.20
119,618
 
31
2.68
 
41
1.77
649,036
 
36
2.56
 
36
2.01
65,271
 
4
4.02
 
62
-0.99
71,214
 
20
2.96
 
55
-0.13
700,750
 
27
2.75
 
48
0.93
421,460
Gaining Counties
 
59
1.44
 
10
4.98
40,054
 
67
0.81
 
13
4.18
178,004
 
60
1.35
 
17
4.01
41,985
 
46
2.27
 
1
9.81
13,595
 
62
1.27
 
25
2.90
100,800
 
53
1.74
 
20
3.31
60,616
 
68
0.79
 
9
5.36
115,235
 
49
1.95
 
21
3.22
2,420,611
 
71
-0.02
 
8
5.56
68,261
 
64
1.16
 
7
5.58
181,936
 
55
1.66
 
28
2.76
700,577
 
40
2.47
 
27
2.77
483,328
 
52
1.77
 
6
5.65
48,190
 
69
0.64
 
30
2.55
54,342
Lagging Counties
 
45
2.29
 
76
-5.96
45,755
 
41
2.45
 
35
2.01
1,041,805
 
50
1.89
 
58
-0.43
203,760
 
54
1.69
 
50
0.39
123,699
 
72
-0.37
 
53
-0.04
25,173
 
73
-0.37
 
52
0.11
42,736
 
61
1.33
 
77
-7.60
53,605
 
42
2.44
 
61
-0.86
60,484
 
47
2.23
 
63
-1.11
169,746
 
66
0.83
 
79
-28.61
47,311
 
70
0.40
 
40
1.81
156,088
 
57
1.57
 
67
-1.56
16,576
 
43
2.34
 
70
-2.55
72,469
 
51
1.84
 
38
1.90
177,837
 
44
2.30
 
72
-2.99
33,183
 
65
1.13
 
56
-0.16
60,397
 
56
1.58
 
42
1.69
53,962
 
63
1.21
 
59
-0.68
40,978
 
48
2.10
 
57
-0.17
38,841
 
58
1.44
 
71
-2.73
109,552
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
54
-0.12
112,947
 
U
U
 
14
4.18
36,651
 
U
U
 
S
S
363,137
 
U
U
 
78
-14.44
19,488
 
U
U
 
31
2.37
43,101
 
U
U
 
S
S
14,711
 
U
U
 
S
S
58,305
 
U
U
 
S
S
13,145
 
U
U
 
S
S
14,426
 
U
U
 
S
S
31,141
 
U
U
 
68
-2.26
34,107
 
U
U
 
S
S
15,090
 
U
U
 
33
2.29
65,994
 
U
U
 
S
S
22,829
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.50
 
2.24
20,466,916
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.47
 
2.84
1,199,218,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_620320_LSGL
 
   
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