Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Local Government Employment Growth
Across Minnesota Counties
Local Government
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Local Government
Employment Growth
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = -0.18%
2022 = 1.51%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of local government employment growth across all of Minnesota's 87 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Minnesota Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the local government employment growth of Minnesota's 87 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Local Government
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Local Government
Employment Growth
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = -0.18%
2022 = 1.51%
This figure displays the 87 counties of Minnesota as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual local government employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the local government employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term local government employment growth exceeded the statewide average of -0.18%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at -0.18% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual local government employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (-0.18%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 32 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 41 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 31 counties whose most recent (2022) local government employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.51%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 42 counties whose local government employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 87 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of -0.18% over 2010-2022 and 1.51% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual local government employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (-0.18%) and near-term (1.51%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual local government employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-0.18%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Minnesota average (1.51%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual local government employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (-0.18%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (1.51%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual local government employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (-0.18%) and near-term (1.51%).
   
 
Summary of Minnesota's 87 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(1.51%)
Above
(1.51%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(-0.18%)
18
14
32
Below
(-0.18%)
24
17
41
 
42
31
73
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = -0.18%
2022 = 1.51%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Minnesota counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Minnesota's average annual local government employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = -0.18%) as well as near-term (2022 = 1.51%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual local government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Minnesota's 87 counties, 14 (16%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = -0.18%
2022 = 1.51%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 18 Minnesota counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual local government employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = -0.18%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 1.51%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual local government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 18 (21%) of Minnesota's 87 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = -0.18%
2022 = 1.51%
This figure shows the distribution of the 17 Minnesota counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual local government employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = -0.18%), while they outpaced Minnesota's average near-term (2022 = 1.51%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual local government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Minnesota's 87 counties, 20% (17) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Minnesota:
2010-2022 = -0.18%
2022 = 1.51%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 24 Minnesota counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual local government employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = -0.18%) as well as near-term (2022 = 1.51%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual local government employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
28% of Minnesota's counties, 24 of 87, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Minnesota
Local Government Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
3
1.47
 
14
3.33
2,578
 
11
0.65
 
4
4.73
3,695
 
15
0.54
 
5
4.59
17,335
 
28
0.06
 
30
1.61
1,266
 
29
0.03
 
24
2.18
54,928
 
19
0.35
 
8
4.00
1,637
 
12
0.63
 
17
3.16
652
 
23
0.19
 
23
2.33
658
 
16
0.50
 
7
4.02
1,189
 
5
1.15
 
13
3.37
6,715
 
1
1.71
 
10
3.81
845
 
9
0.86
 
1
6.56
3,754
 
32
-0.16
 
21
2.53
1,013
 
18
0.36
 
31
1.58
6,060
Slipping Counties
 
25
0.14
 
77
-4.81
732
 
20
0.33
 
54
-0.83
2,744
 
7
0.99
 
58
-1.04
1,138
 
2
1.51
 
37
0.86
3,174
 
30
-0.01
 
33
1.34
759
 
26
0.11
 
64
-2.07
1,135
 
8
0.97
 
45
-0.14
2,872
 
13
0.56
 
68
-3.10
874
 
17
0.46
 
57
-0.99
1,504
 
27
0.09
 
63
-1.95
554
 
22
0.28
 
69
-3.47
1,474
 
10
0.67
 
38
0.75
1,348
 
14
0.55
 
67
-3.00
1,260
 
4
1.30
 
35
1.21
3,183
 
31
-0.04
 
66
-2.76
1,868
 
24
0.17
 
36
0.88
1,949
 
6
1.02
 
43
-0.08
1,245
 
21
0.28
 
50
-0.47
8,858
Gaining Counties
 
49
-0.70
 
16
3.22
3,524
 
63
-1.54
 
2
5.56
2,583
 
70
-2.43
 
26
2.11
773
 
52
-0.79
 
29
1.64
3,476
 
67
-1.80
 
12
3.54
2,310
 
46
-0.63
 
25
2.17
658
 
35
-0.22
 
15
3.32
218
 
65
-1.58
 
20
2.74
1,536
 
59
-1.24
 
27
2.06
2,879
 
62
-1.43
 
18
3.13
1,054
 
71
-2.46
 
6
4.03
1,989
 
39
-0.38
 
28
1.97
26,729
 
69
-2.39
 
9
3.93
1,242
 
64
-1.54
 
3
5.12
2,443
 
37
-0.26
 
19
2.95
6,673
 
57
-1.18
 
22
2.39
771
 
44
-0.60
 
11
3.62
1,258
Lagging Counties
 
36
-0.24
 
41
0.52
12,885
 
38
-0.30
 
74
-3.64
1,428
 
55
-0.98
 
40
0.55
3,267
 
54
-0.87
 
59
-1.17
1,769
 
73
-2.82
 
71
-3.53
410
 
66
-1.63
 
49
-0.31
633
 
53
-0.82
 
55
-0.86
1,037
 
40
-0.40
 
61
-1.69
988
 
45
-0.62
 
65
-2.58
2,533
 
68
-1.95
 
79
-23.24
763
 
50
-0.73
 
75
-4.15
254
 
34
-0.21
 
34
1.25
1,213
 
48
-0.69
 
73
-3.55
1,169
 
33
-0.19
 
52
-0.77
1,812
 
47
-0.66
 
76
-4.47
513
 
42
-0.46
 
60
-1.69
815
 
61
-1.34
 
51
-0.64
1,082
 
56
-1.12
 
44
-0.12
833
 
51
-0.78
 
32
1.51
9,823
 
41
-0.45
 
53
-0.80
8,436
 
60
-1.30
 
70
-3.52
685
 
43
-0.46
 
47
-0.29
688
 
58
-1.20
 
62
-1.88
1,621
 
72
-2.59
 
39
0.64
937
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
56
-0.94
1,576
 
U
U
 
46
-0.17
585
 
U
U
 
S
S
4,694
 
U
U
 
78
-12.33
320
 
U
U
 
42
0.14
709
 
U
U
 
S
S
280
 
U
U
 
S
S
999
 
U
U
 
S
S
237
 
U
U
 
S
S
243
 
U
U
 
S
S
518
 
U
U
 
72
-3.54
600
 
U
U
 
S
S
289
 
U
U
 
48
-0.29
1,031
 
U
U
 
S
S
363
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-0.18
 
1.51
267,150
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-0.11
 
1.96
14,130,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_520320_LSGL
 
   
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